YES
13%
PRICE $0.13 · IMPLIED 13%▸ BUY YES
LIVE · TRADING OPENPUTIN219D 8H REMAINING
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
RESOLVESDec 31, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
CONTRACT0x8011…8229
Current odds
Live · updates every 20sNO
88%
PRICE $0.88 · IMPLIED 88%▸ BUY NO
Price history
OPEN 24H
0.09
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.14
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.05
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes
Market stats
Polymarket · CLOB24H VOLUME
$2k
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$183k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
$35k
Available to trade
Recent trades
Last 10 fills · live| TIME | SIDE | PRICE | SIZE | VALUE | TRADER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
About this market
ContextThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
How trading works
Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.
Resolution
Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.
FAQ
Resolution & tradingHow is this market resolved?+
The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at Dec 31, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (13%), No (88%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.