What are the odds of "Yes" for "Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?"?

Currently 41% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

What are the odds of "No" for "Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?"?

Currently 60% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

LIVE · TRADING OPENMACRO INDICATORS339D 8H REMAINING

Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

RESOLVESApr 30, 2027 · 12:00 AM UTC

CONTRACT0xc3ff…421f

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

YES

41%

PRICE $0.41 · IMPLIED 41%▸ BUY YES

60%

PRICE $0.59 · IMPLIED 60%▸ BUY NO

Price history

OPEN 24H

0.37

Yes

HIGH 24H

0.43

at 11:42 ET

LOW 24H

0.34

at 02:18 ET

CHANGE

+0.04

+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB

24H VOLUME

—

Past 24 hours

TOTAL VOLUME

$2k

Since creation

LIQUIDITY

$2k

Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live

TIME	SIDE	PRICE	SIZE	VALUE	TRADER

About this market

Context

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading

How is this market resolved?+

The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.

When does this market close?+

Trading closes at Apr 30, 2027 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.

What are the possible outcomes?+

The possible outcomes are: Yes (41%), No (60%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.

What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+

If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.

How do I trade on Polymarket?+

You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.