What are the odds of "Yes" for "Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?"?

Currently 30% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

What are the odds of "No" for "Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?"?

Currently 70% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

YES

30%

PRICE $0.30 · IMPLIED 30%▸ BUY YES

70%

PRICE $0.70 · IMPLIED 70%▸ BUY NO

Price history

OPEN 24H

0.26

Yes

HIGH 24H

0.32

at 11:42 ET

LOW 24H

0.23

at 02:18 ET

CHANGE

+0.04

+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB

24H VOLUME

$265

Past 24 hours

TOTAL VOLUME

$11k

Since creation

LIQUIDITY

$3k

Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live

TIME	SIDE	PRICE	SIZE	VALUE	TRADER

About this market

Context

On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading

How is this market resolved?+

The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.

When does this market close?+

Trading closes at Jun 30, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.

What are the possible outcomes?+

The possible outcomes are: Yes (30%), No (70%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.

What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+

If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.

How do I trade on Polymarket?+

You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.