What are the odds of "Nothing" for "Nothing Ever Happens: Obama"?

Currently 88% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

What are the odds of "Something" for "Nothing Ever Happens: Obama"?

Currently 13% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

Nothing Ever Happens: Obama | Prediction Market

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

NOTHING

88%

PRICE $0.88 · IMPLIED 88%▸ BUY NOTHING

SOMETHING

13%

PRICE $0.13 · IMPLIED 13%▸ BUY SOMETHING

Price history

OPEN 24H

0.84

Nothing

HIGH 24H

0.90

at 11:42 ET

LOW 24H

0.81

at 02:18 ET

CHANGE

+0.04

+7.0% on Nothing

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB

24H VOLUME

—

Past 24 hours

TOTAL VOLUME

$10k

Since creation

LIQUIDITY

$10k

Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live

TIME	SIDE	PRICE	SIZE	VALUE	TRADER

About this market

Context

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Obama federally charged - Obama arrested - Obama divorce Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_Obama.pdf

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading

How is this market resolved?+

The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.

When does this market close?+

Trading closes at Dec 31, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.

What are the possible outcomes?+

The possible outcomes are: Nothing (88%), Something (13%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.

What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+

If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.

How do I trade on Polymarket?+

You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.