Will the Progress Party (FrP) win 22% or more of vote in Norwegian election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Norway on September 8, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Progress Party (FrP) wins 22% or more of all valid votes in the next Norwegian parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. If voting in the next Norwegian parliamentary election does not occur by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Norway's government (e.g. via https://www.valg.no/en/).

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.