What are the odds of "Yes" for "Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden?"?

Currently 0% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

What are the odds of "No" for "Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden?"?

Currently 100% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden?

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

YES

PRICE $0.00 · IMPLIED 0%▸ BUY YES

100%

PRICE $1.00 · IMPLIED 100%▸ BUY NO

Price history

OPEN 24H

0.01

Yes

HIGH 24H

0.02

at 11:42 ET

LOW 24H

0.01

at 02:18 ET

CHANGE

+0.04

+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB

24H VOLUME

—

Past 24 hours

TOTAL VOLUME

$1.4M

Since creation

LIQUIDITY

—

Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live

TIME	SIDE	PRICE	SIZE	VALUE	TRADER

About this market

Context

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is elected to be President of the United States of America and Hunter Biden receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by Donald Trump by April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election, this market will immediately resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for whether Trump is elected or not is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on the person inaugurated. The primary resolution source for whether Hunter is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading

How is this market resolved?+

The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.

When does this market close?+

Trading closes at Apr 19, 2025 · 12:00 PM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.

What are the possible outcomes?+

The possible outcomes are: Yes (0%), No (100%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.

What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+

If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.

How do I trade on Polymarket?+

You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.