Will there be more than 120 million confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by April 1, 2021?

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

YES

100%

PRICE $1.00 · IMPLIED 100%▸ BUY YES

PRICE $0.00 · IMPLIED 0%▸ BUY NO

Price history

OPEN 24H

0.96

Yes

HIGH 24H

0.99

at 11:42 ET

LOW 24H

0.93

at 02:18 ET

CHANGE

+0.04

+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB

24H VOLUME

Past 24 hours

TOTAL VOLUME

$12k

Since creation

LIQUIDITY

$344

Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live

TIME	SIDE	PRICE	SIZE	VALUE	TRADER

Resolution rules

From Polymarket

https://covid19.who.int/

ORACLEUMA Optimistic

DISPUTE PERIOD2 hours

About this market

Context

This is a market on the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases there will be globally by April 1, 2021, 11:59 pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are more than 120,000,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally on or before the resolution date. This market will resolve to “No” if there are never more than 120,000,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, globally, as indicated by the World Health Organization’s Coronavirus Disease Dashboard (https://covid19.who.int/).

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading

How is this market resolved?+

https://covid19.who.int/

When does this market close?+

Trading closes at Apr 1, 2021 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.

What are the possible outcomes?+

The possible outcomes are: Yes (100%), No (0%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.

What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+

If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.

How do I trade on Polymarket?+

You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.