Will there be more than 100 positive cases of COVID-19 among athletes at the 2020 Olympics?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are more 100 positive cases of COVID-19 among athletes at the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo, Japan. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be the Olympics' official list of positive COVID-19 cases, currently available at https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/en/notices/covid-19-positive-case-list (select the "Covid-19 Positive Case List" PDF). Specifically, a manual count will be done on the number of positive COVID-19 cases, where the date the case was reported (see “Date of positive case reported” column) is on or after July 23, 2021 (Opening Ceremony) and on or before August 8, 2021 (Closing Ceremony), and the person testing positive is an athlete (see the “Category” column, with cell values indicating “Athletes”). Note if the date of the Opening or Closing Ceremonies change, this market will still resolve on the number of positive cases among athletes between July 23, 2021 and August 8, 2021. This market will resolve on August 11, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, or any time earlier if the target number has been exceeded. If data covering the full range of dates is not available at the final check, the resolution source will be checked every 24 hours until August 18, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. If data is still not available at this time, this market will resolve 50-50. (Note if the current link to positive COVID-19 cases becomes unavailable, any official data source from the Olympics on positive COVID-19 cases will be used, so long as it contains the requisite information: positive COVID-19 cases, dates of the those cases, and whether those cases occurred within athletes.)

How trading works

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Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.