Will there be an earthquake of magnitude 4.5 or higher in the conterminous U.S. by December 31st?

This is a market on whether there will be an earthquake of magnitude 4.5 (Richter scale) or higher in the Conterminous U.S. between the market conception time, November 29th, 2021, 12:00 PM ET and December 31st, 2021 (11:59 PM ET), as measured by the U.S. Geological Survey. This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the list of recorded seismic activity at the resolution source (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/) for that period will include at least one earthquake of magnitude 4.5 or higher with its epicentre in the Conterminous U.S. and “No” otherwise. ------------------------------ The term 'Conterminous U.S.' used in this market refers to 48 lower states of The United States, excluding the maritime territory.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.