YES
100%
PRICE $1.00 · IMPLIED 100%▸ BUY YES
ALL
Will there be an earthquake of magnitude 4.5 or higher in the conterminous U.S. by December 31st?
Current odds
Live · updates every 20sNO
0%
PRICE $0.00 · IMPLIED 0%▸ BUY NO
Price history
OPEN 24H
0.96
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.99
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.93
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes
Market stats
Polymarket · CLOB24H VOLUME
$0
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$53k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
$50
Available to trade
Recent trades
Last 10 fills · live| TIME | SIDE | PRICE | SIZE | VALUE | TRADER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Resolution rules
From Polymarkethttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/
ORACLEUMA Optimistic
DISPUTE PERIOD2 hours
About this market
ContextThis is a market on whether there will be an earthquake of magnitude 4.5 (Richter scale) or higher in the Conterminous U.S. between the market conception time, November 29th, 2021, 12:00 PM ET and December 31st, 2021 (11:59 PM ET), as measured by the U.S. Geological Survey. This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the list of recorded seismic activity at the resolution source (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/) for that period will include at least one earthquake of magnitude 4.5 or higher with its epicentre in the Conterminous U.S. and “No” otherwise. ------------------------------ The term 'Conterminous U.S.' used in this market refers to 48 lower states of The United States, excluding the maritime territory.
How trading works
Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.
Resolution
Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.
FAQ
Resolution & tradingHow is this market resolved?+
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at Dec 31, 2021 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (100%), No (0%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.