Prediction HFT
GEOPOLITICS
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

MARKETS4
CLOSESMar 31, 2026 ยท 12:00 AM UTC
CONTRACT0x7f3cโ€ฆ889d
EVENT VOLUME
$214
MARKETS
4
LIQUIDITY
$28k
CONTRACT
0x7f3cโ€ฆ889d

Markets in this event

4 markets ยท sorted by volume
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
$8.4M
VOL
โ†’
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
$2.8M
VOL
โ†’
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
$2.8M
VOL
โ†’
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
$204k
VOL
โ†’

Event activity

Across all 4 markets
24H VOLUME
$214
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$14.2M
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
$28k
Available to trade

About this event

Context for traders

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model โ€” you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders. Prices represent implied probability: a $0.65 contract means the market prices a 65% chance of that outcome.

FAQ

Resolution & format
How are markets in this event resolved?+
Each market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.
When do these markets close?+
Trading closes at Mar 31, 2026 ยท 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
How many markets are in this event?+
This event contains 4 markets. Each market settles independently โ€” you can trade any or all of them.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome. All settlements are in USDC.