Prediction HFT
ALL

Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average on January 8th be higher than it was a week earlier?

RESOLVESJan 15, 2022 · 12:00 AM UTC
SOURCEcovid.cdc.gov

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

Price history

80¢65¢50¢35¢20¢00:0006:0012:0018:00NOW100¢YESNO
OPEN 24H
0.96
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.99
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.93
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB
24H VOLUME
$0
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$9k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
$398
Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live
TIMESIDEPRICESIZEVALUETRADER

Resolution rules

From Polymarket
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases
ORACLEUMA Optimistic
DISPUTE PERIOD2 hours

About this market

Context

This is a market on whether the United States will report a 7-day average of COVID-19 cases for the date of January 8 2022 that is higher than the 7-day average of COVID-19 cases reported for the date of January 1 2022. This market will resolve on data from the CDC's Data Tracker, specifically, the 7-day moving average of COVID-19 cases for the United States, which is available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases (navigate to "Select a state or territory" and select “United States”, and then scroll to "Data Table for Daily Case Trends" and view the data in the "7-Day Moving Avg" column, which is able to be sorted in descending order). The resolution source will be reviewed at 8 PM ET on January 15 to check the 7-day average for both the dates of January 8 and January 1 2022. If the 7-day average for January 8 exceeds that of January 1 at this check, "Yes" will win. Otherwise, "No" will win. If the resolution source is unavailable at that time, the most recently available data will be used to resolve the market.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading
How is this market resolved?+
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at Jan 15, 2022 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (100%), No (0%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.