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Will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be less than 15,000 on June 17?

Will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be less than 15,000 on June 17?

RESOLVESJun 17, 2021 · 12:00 AM UTC
SOURCEcovid.cdc.gov

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

Price history

80¢65¢50¢35¢20¢00:0006:0012:0018:00NOW100¢YESNO
OPEN 24H
0.96
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.99
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.93
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB
24H VOLUME
$0
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$86k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
$0
Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live
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Resolution rules

From Polymarket
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases
ORACLEUMA Optimistic
DISPUTE PERIOD2 hours

About this market

Context

In response to trader inquiry: As of June 18, 2021, at 12:51 AM ET, there has been no data published by the CDC for the date of June 17, 2021. If no data is published for the date of June 17, 2021 at the time of the second check, which will take place on June 18, 2021, at 8:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50/50 as per the original market rules. This is a market on whether the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US will be less than 15,000 for the day of June 17, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases for the day of June 17, 2021, as displayed on the CDC’s Covid Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). The 7-day moving average will be checked at 8:00 PM ET on June 17, 2021. If the average for the day of June 17 is less than 15,000, the market will resolve to “Yes.” Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” If the website is down at that time or for any reason data for June 17 is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 8:00 PM ET on June 18, 2021) and resolve then. If data for June 17 is still unavailable at that time, the market will resolve to 50-50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading
How is this market resolved?+
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at Jun 17, 2021 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (100%), No (0%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.