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Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

RESOLVESJun 30, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
CONTRACT0x0585…5a4d

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

Price history

80¢65¢50¢35¢20¢00:0006:0012:0018:00NOW9¢YESNO
OPEN 24H
0.05
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.11
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.02
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB
24H VOLUME
$3
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$106k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
$6k
Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live
TIMESIDEPRICESIZEVALUETRADER

About this market

Context

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading
How is this market resolved?+
The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at Jun 30, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (9%), No (91%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.