Prediction HFT
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Will President Biden say “folks” in his first Joint Address?

Will President Biden say “folks” in his first Joint Address?

RESOLVESApr 28, 2021 · 12:00 AM UTC
SOURCEwhitehouse.gov

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

Price history

80¢65¢50¢35¢20¢00:0006:0012:0018:00NOW100¢YESNO
OPEN 24H
0.96
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.99
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.93
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

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Resolution rules

From Polymarket
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/
ORACLEUMA Optimistic
DISPUTE PERIOD2 hours

About this market

Context

This is a market on whether President Biden will say “folks” during his first joint address to Congress, scheduled to take place on April 28, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Biden says “folks” in his first Joint Address, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the official transcript of the joint address, as published by an official White House source (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/). This market will resolve after an official transcript of the address is published. Update: In response to trader inquiry, this market will resolve on April 29, 2021, 9 PM ET according to the transcript published by the resolution source (whitehouse.gov) that most accurately reflects the speech as delivered by President Biden.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading
How is this market resolved?+
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at Apr 28, 2021 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (100%), No (0%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.