Will OPEC hike production by next meeting?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OPEC or OPEC+ officially announces a new group-level crude oil production hike that is additional to all production hikes publicly agreed to by or on the time the September 2025 OPEC+ meeting release is published. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The next OPEC+ meeting where production levels are to be set is scheduled to take place on September 7 (https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/1518572-03-august-2025.html). If that September 7, 2025 ET meeting passes, the release is published, and no rate hike occurs, this market will resolve to "No". If no release is published by the time of the next OPEC+ meeting, this market will resolve to "No". A "new group-level crude oil production hike" means an increase in crude oil production that is clearly presented as a new, collective action by OPEC or OPEC+ as a whole, not just an extension, reaffirmation, technical adjustment, or voluntary action by individual members or subgroups. Conditional hikes only count if the group explicitly agrees to reduce production and specifies the conditions and volume in the September 2025 announcement. The primary resolution source will be official OPEC or OPEC+ communications, however a clear consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How trading works

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Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.