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Will NATO declare a No Fly-Zone over any Ukrainian territory by April 30, 2022?

Will NATO declare a No Fly-Zone over any Ukrainian territory by April 30, 2022?

RESOLVESApr 30, 2022 · 12:00 AM UTC
SOURCEnato.int

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

Price history

80¢65¢50¢35¢20¢00:0006:0012:0018:00NOWYESNO
OPEN 24H
0.01
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.02
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.01
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

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Past 24 hours
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Since creation
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Resolution rules

From Polymarket
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_room.htm
ORACLEUMA Optimistic
DISPUTE PERIOD2 hours

About this market

Context

This market asks whether the North American Treaty Organization (NATO) will declare a no fly-zone over the airspace of any territory designated by the United Nations as Ukrainian by April 30, 2022. If NATO declares a no fly-zone over the airspace of any territory designated by the United Nations as Ukrainian between the date of this market's inception, March 8, 2022, 12:00:00 PM ET, and April 30, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If NATO declares the no-fly zone by April 30, 2022, even if it goes into effect afterwards, it will still suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information released by NATO (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_room.htm), however other credible news sources will also be used.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading
How is this market resolved?+
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_room.htm
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at Apr 30, 2022 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (0%), No (100%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.