Prediction HFT
ALL

Will more than 2.5 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before May 1, 2022?

RESOLVESMay 1, 2022 · 12:00 AM UTC
SOURCEtsa.gov

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

Price history

80¢65¢50¢35¢20¢00:0006:0012:0018:00NOWYESNO
OPEN 24H
0.01
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.02
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.01
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB
24H VOLUME
$0
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$66k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
$50
Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live
TIMESIDEPRICESIZEVALUETRADER

Resolution rules

From Polymarket
https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
ORACLEUMA Optimistic
DISPUTE PERIOD2 hours

About this market

Context

This is a market on whether more than 2.5 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day on or after February 19, 2022, and on or before May 1, 2022. The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. Should this URL change or move locations a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 2,500,000 for any day on or after February 19, 2022, and on or before May 1, 2022. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of May 1, 2022, or on any date before that if the target is reached. If the target has not been reached and if data is not available for any of the days from February 19, 2022, to May 1, 2022, by May 10, 2022, the market will resolve to 50-50. Any revisions published to data for dates February 19, 2022 and onward prior to the release of data for May 1, 2022, will be considered.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading
How is this market resolved?+
https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at May 1, 2022 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (0%), No (100%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.