What are the odds of "Yes" for "Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by June 30?"?

Currently 39% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

What are the odds of "No" for "Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by June 30?"?

Currently 62% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by June 30?

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

YES

39%

PRICE $0.39 · IMPLIED 39%▸ BUY YES

62%

PRICE $0.61 · IMPLIED 62%▸ BUY NO

Price history

OPEN 24H

0.35

Yes

HIGH 24H

0.41

at 11:42 ET

LOW 24H

0.32

at 02:18 ET

CHANGE

+0.04

+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB

24H VOLUME

—

Past 24 hours

TOTAL VOLUME

$4k

Since creation

LIQUIDITY

$105

Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live

TIME	SIDE	PRICE	SIZE	VALUE	TRADER

About this market

Context

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lana Del Rey officially releases a new album between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading

How is this market resolved?+

The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.

When does this market close?+

Trading closes at Jun 30, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.

What are the possible outcomes?+

The possible outcomes are: Yes (39%), No (62%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.

What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+

If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.

How do I trade on Polymarket?+

You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.