Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity, will be, has been, or is entering into an agreement to acquire OnlyFans (or its parent company) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in OnlyFans (or its parent company) by Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count. An announcement of a qualifying acquisition by Elon Musk, OnlyFans, or their parent entities will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition actually occurs. The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by Elon Musk; his involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify only if the transaction results in a controlling interest as defined above. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Elon Musk and/or OnlyFans, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.