Prediction HFT
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Will @DonaldJTrumpJr post more than 70 new tweets by November 8th?

Will @DonaldJTrumpJr post more than 70 new tweets by November 8th?

RESOLVESNov 8, 2021 · 12:00 AM UTC
SOURCEtweetdeck.twitter.com

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

Price history

80¢65¢50¢35¢20¢00:0006:0012:0018:00NOWYESNO
OPEN 24H
0.01
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.02
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.01
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB
24H VOLUME
$0
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$6k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
$161
Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live
TIMESIDEPRICESIZEVALUETRADER

Resolution rules

From Polymarket
https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/
ORACLEUMA Optimistic
DISPUTE PERIOD2 hours

About this market

Context

This is a market on whether a total of 43,940 tweets or more will be posted by the @DonaldJTrumpJr Twitter account, as indicated by the resolution source (https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/), by the resolution date of 6:00 PM ET, November 8, 2021. This would be 71 more than the number of tweets posted from @DonaldJTrumpJr, according to the resolution source, at the time of the creation of this market on November 3, 2021 (which stands at 43,869, the “Baseline”). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the resolution source indicates 43,940 or more tweets have been posted from the @DonaldJTrumpJr Twitter account, by the resolution date. This market will resolve to “No” if the resolution source indicates less than 43,940 tweets have been posted from the @DonaldJTrumpJr Twitter account, by the resolution date. Should the resolution source be unavailable at the time of resolution, this market will resolve 50-50. ---------------------------------- Additional Market Information: - To see the official cumulative tweet count on the resolution source, search the resolution source for the verified @DonaldJTrumpJr Twitter account, and check the cumulative numbers of tweets under the “TWEETS” field. - The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total. - Neither Donald Trump Jr., nor any authorized user of the account in question, need to be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading
How is this market resolved?+
https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at Nov 8, 2021 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (0%), No (100%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.