Will daily atmospheric CO2 be above 416.2 ppm on August 3, 2021?

This is a market on whether atmospheric CO2 will be above 416.20 parts per million (ppm) for the date of August 3, 2021 as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa observatory (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the daily average atmospheric CO2 is greater than 416.20 ppm for August 3, 2021 and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve when data for the date of August 3, 2021 is first published on the resolution source, i.e. in the green information box on https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html, which appears under the “Recent Daily Average Mauna Loa CO2” heading. If data is not available for the date of August 3, 2021, by August 6, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). Warning: It may be possible to infer Daily CO2 emissions using data available elsewhere on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa observatory website (here: https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/data/ & https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/) up to 24 hours before they are published to the main resolution source. Trade at your own risk within the last 24 hours of the market.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.