Will Biden say "recession" in his Tuesday remarks on inflation?

This is a market on whether President Biden will mention "recession" or "recessions" during his press conference scheduled for May 10, 2022. This market concerns the speech and following Q&A, not later speeches in the day. The market will resolve to “Yes” if Biden says "recession" or "recessions" at any point during the speech and any following Q&A, as verified by live video, an official transcript, and/or other credible sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. References to a recession or recessions will not count toward a "Yes" resolution of this market - only the exact phrasing of "recession" or "recessions" will be considered (note that capitalization is not relevant for this market, only the spoken word). The conference can be watched live at https://www.youtube.com/c/WhiteHouse/videos.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.