Prediction HFT
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Will annual inflation in the European Union be 8.0% or more in April?

Will annual inflation in the European Union be 8.0% or more in April?

RESOLVESMay 18, 2022 · 12:00 AM UTC
SOURCEec.europa.eu

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

Price history

80¢65¢50¢35¢20¢00:0006:0012:0018:00NOW100¢YESNO
OPEN 24H
0.96
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.99
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.93
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB
24H VOLUME
$0
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$9k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
$14
Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live
TIMESIDEPRICESIZEVALUETRADER

Resolution rules

From Polymarket
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators
ORACLEUMA Optimistic
DISPUTE PERIOD2 hours

About this market

Context

This is a market on a year-to-year inflation, as measured by the Eurostat (HICP), from April 2021 to April 2022. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union annual inflation in April 2022 is 8.0 percent or more and "No" otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators. The next release of HICP inflation rate with full data for April 2022 is scheduled for May 18, 2022. Note, that this market is about inflation for all European Union Member States, not only the Euro zone (states using €). The Inflation dashboard for the Euro zone can be viewed here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading
How is this market resolved?+
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at May 18, 2022 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (100%), No (0%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.