Prediction HFT
ALL
Will Andy Warhol's Self Portrait sell for more than $16 million at Sotheby's?

Will Andy Warhol's Self Portrait sell for more than $16 million at Sotheby's?

RESOLVESMay 16, 2022 · 12:00 AM UTC
SOURCEyoutube.com

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

Price history

80¢65¢50¢35¢20¢00:0006:0012:0018:00NOWYESNO
OPEN 24H
0.01
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.02
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.01
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB
24H VOLUME
$0
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$13k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
$125
Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live
TIMESIDEPRICESIZEVALUETRADER

Resolution rules

From Polymarket
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TM-Jhb9wmIY & https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2022/the-macklowe-collection/self-portrait-2
ORACLEUMA Optimistic
DISPUTE PERIOD2 hours

About this market

Context

'Self-Portrait' is a work by the American artist Andy Warhol. The self-portrait is has a camouflage-patterned foreground and a black background. 'Self Portrait' signed and dated 1986 is set up for sale with Sotheby's, as a part of The Macklowe Collection live auction (Lot 12), on May 16, 7 PM ET, in New York (https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2022/the-macklowe-collection/self-portrait-2). This is a market on the final hammer price for this painting. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the final Hammer Price for 'Self Portrait' (Lot 12) at auction exceeds $16,000,000 and to “No” otherwise. Note: this is a market on the final hammer price at the live auction, which does not include buyer’s premium, fees, or taxes, and is not equivalent to the “Lot Sold” price as listed on Sotheby’s website. If, for whatever reason, Sotheby’s does not provide a live broadcast, the recording of the auction, nor the hammer price elsewhere, this market will resolve to the price listed on Sotheby's website. If the auction is cancelled altogether and will not happen by May 23, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No”.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading
How is this market resolved?+
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TM-Jhb9wmIY & https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2022/the-macklowe-collection/self-portrait-2
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at May 16, 2022 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (0%), No (100%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.