Will Alito deliver the final majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization?

On May 2, 2022, Politico published a story (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473) including a leaked version of a decision being drafted by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) that would overturn Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, a set of highly contentious SCOTUS decisions that guarantee the right of American citizens' access to abortion. This was a draft from mid-February, and Supreme Court Justices are known to change opinions during the drafting process, however it has engendered intense controversy in the United States. If SCOTUS releases a decision in the case "No. 19-1392 - Thomas E. Dobbs, State Health Officer of the Mississippi Department of Health, et al., Petitioners v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, et al." in which associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States Samuel Anthony Alito Jr. delivers the majority opinion by October 3, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Concurring or dissent opinions will not have any impact on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information released by SCOTUS (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/opinions.aspx), however credible media reporting may be used.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.