YES
12%
PRICE $0.12 · IMPLIED 12%▸ BUY YES
LIVE · TRADING OPENWORLD219D 8H REMAINING
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
RESOLVESDec 31, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
CONTRACT0xfa03…2129
Current odds
Live · updates every 20sNO
88%
PRICE $0.88 · IMPLIED 88%▸ BUY NO
Price history
OPEN 24H
0.08
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.14
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.05
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes
Market stats
Polymarket · CLOB24H VOLUME
$2k
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$130k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
$34k
Available to trade
Recent trades
Last 10 fills · live| TIME | SIDE | PRICE | SIZE | VALUE | TRADER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
About this market
ContextThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How trading works
Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.
Resolution
Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.
FAQ
Resolution & tradingHow is this market resolved?+
The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at Dec 31, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (12%), No (88%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.