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Will a vaccine targeting the Omicron variant be available in the US before April 1, 2022?

Will a vaccine targeting the Omicron variant be available in the US before April 1, 2022?

RESOLVESApr 1, 2022 · 12:00 AM UTC
SOURCEfda.gov

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

Price history

80¢65¢50¢35¢20¢00:0006:0012:0018:00NOWYESNO
OPEN 24H
0.01
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.02
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.01
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

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Past 24 hours
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Since creation
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Last 10 fills · live
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Resolution rules

From Polymarket
https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization
ORACLEUMA Optimistic
DISPUTE PERIOD2 hours

About this market

Context

If a vaccine engineered to specifically provide protection against the Omicron variant of COVID-19, whether or not it additionally protects against other variants of SARS-CoV-2, is released for public use in the US, regardless of whether its use is restricted to particular population segments, before April 1, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The source used to resolve this market will be official information released by the FDA (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) and/or other official information from the government of the United States of America. Note, this market is only for a vaccine’s availability in the United States, and does not cover any vaccine’s availability in any other country.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading
How is this market resolved?+
https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at Apr 1, 2022 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (0%), No (100%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.