Will a major hurricane make landfall in the lower 48 states before September 15?

This is a market on whether a major hurricane will make landfall in the lower 48 states of the U.S. between the launch date of this market, August 26, 2021 at 5:45 PM ET, and the expiration date of this market, September 14, 2021, at 11:59:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a major hurricane is a hurricane designated as Category 3 or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a major hurricane landfall is said to occur when a major hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve according to official advisories reported by the National Hurricane Center. This market will resolve to "Yes” if a major hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States during the market time-frame, and “No” otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.