Will 40 or more US states have high/substantial COVID-19 community spread on any day on or before September 1?

This is a market on whether 40 or more US states will have high or substantial COVID-19 community spread on any day on or after the inception date of this market, July 15, 2021, and on or before September 1, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 40 or more states have high or substantial community spread on any day on or after July 15 and on or before September 1, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_community with “Level of Community Transmission” selected. The resolution source will be checked every day at 8 PM ET, and the number of states with high or substantial community spread will calculated. If on any of these checks the number of states with high or substantial community spread is 40 or higher, the market will resolve to “Yes.” The final check will be on September 1, 2021, at 8 PM ET. If the resolution source is down or data is unavailable, then the market will resolve based on the most recently available data. Note that territories will not be considered for this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.