Will 2024 have the hottest April on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior April when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for April 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for April, and if 2024 April is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes." Note: If 2024 April is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2024 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.