Trump positive favorability on Day 100?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s favorable rating according to RealClearPolitics is higher than his unfavorable rating on April 29, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating for a “Yes” resolution; ties will not qualify. The resolution source will be RealClearPolitics’ Favorability Ratings poll aggregator, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leaders, specifically the RCP average under the column labeled "Spread" checked at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the resolution date. The listed value as of the check time will be used to resolve this market regardless of the listed date range. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolitics calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.8%, -3.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.