YES
72%
PRICE $0.72 Β· IMPLIED 72%βΈ BUY YES
LIVE Β· TRADING OPENGEOPOLITICS219D 8H REMAINING
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
RESOLVESDec 31, 2026 Β· 12:00 AM UTC
CONTRACT0xa090β¦931e
Current odds
Live Β· updates every 20sNO
28%
PRICE $0.28 Β· IMPLIED 28%βΈ BUY NO
Price history
OPEN 24H
0.68
Yes
HIGH 24H
0.74
at 11:42 ET
LOW 24H
0.65
at 02:18 ET
CHANGE
+0.04
+7.0% on Yes
Market stats
Polymarket Β· CLOB24H VOLUME
$883
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$578k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
$29k
Available to trade
Recent trades
Last 10 fills Β· live| TIME | SIDE | PRICE | SIZE | VALUE | TRADER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
About this market
ContextThis market will resolve to βNoβ if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ββ 1Mβ or ββ 10kβ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI β₯6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to βYesβ. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
How trading works
Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model β you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.
Resolution
Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.
FAQ
Resolution & tradingHow is this market resolved?+
The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.
When does this market close?+
Trading closes at Dec 31, 2026 Β· 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
What are the possible outcomes?+
The possible outcomes are: Yes (72%), No (28%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.