Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". βNo longer under the control of Iranβ means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to βNoβ. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
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