LIVE ยท TRADING OPENGEOPOLITICSEVENT IN 219D 8H
How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
Markets in this event
10 markets ยท sorted by volume
Will Trump deport 700-800k people?Yes 1%No 99%
$40k
VOL
โ
Will Trump deport 300-400k people?Yes 23%No 78%
$14k
VOL
โ
Will Trump deport 800-900k people?Yes 1%No 99%
$12k
VOL
โ
Will Trump deport less than 200k people?Yes 2%No 98%
$8k
VOL
โ
Will Trump deport 200-300k people?Yes 12%No 88%
$8k
VOL
โ
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?Yes 39%No 62%
$6k
VOL
โ
Will Trump deport 900k-1m people?Yes 1%No 99%
$6k
VOL
โ
Will Trump deport more than 1m people?Yes 1%No 99%
$5k
VOL
โ
Will Trump deport 500-600k people?Yes 14%No 86%
$5k
VOL
โ
Will Trump deport 600-700k people?Yes 1%No 99%
$4k
VOL
โ
Event activity
Across all 10 markets24H VOLUME
$139
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$108k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
$99k
Available to trade
About this event
Context for tradersDuring the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
How trading works
Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model โ you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders. Prices represent implied probability: a $0.65 contract means the market prices a 65% chance of that outcome.
FAQ
Resolution & formatHow are markets in this event resolved?+
Each market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.
When do these markets close?+
Trading closes at Dec 31, 2026 ยท 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
How many markets are in this event?+
This event contains 10 markets. Each market settles independently โ you can trade any or all of them.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome. All settlements are in USDC.