How many new US residential sales will the U.S. Census Bureau report for June?

This is a scalar market on the number of new residential sales that the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development will report for June 2021. The lower bound for this market is 600,000 and the upper bound is 900,000. This market will resolve on the Census’ count of "New Houses Sold", in their "Monthly New Residential Sales" Report for the month of June 2021, scheduled to be released at the webpage https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html (see "Current Press Release: Full Report [PDF]" in the "New Residential Sales" section) , on July 26, 2021. The resolution source will be checked at 5:00 PM ET on July 26, 2021. If the source is unavailable at that time, or does not have the New Residential Sales data for June 2021, it will be checked the following day at 5:00 PM ET, and once daily at that time until the data is available. If at 5:00 PM ET on August 2, 2021 the data is still unavailable, this market will resolve to 750,000, which is between the upper and lower bounds of the market. You can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with residential sales. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.