How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?
Markets in this event
9 markets Β· sorted by volume
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Event activity
Across all 9 marketsAbout this event
Context for tradersThis market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
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Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model β you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders. Prices represent implied probability: a $0.65 contract means the market prices a 65% chance of that outcome.