What are the odds of "Kamala" for "Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?"?

Currently 0% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

What are the odds of "Trump" for "Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?"?

Currently 100% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

KAMALA

PRICE $0.00 · IMPLIED 0%▸ BUY KAMALA

TRUMP

100%

PRICE $1.00 · IMPLIED 100%▸ BUY TRUMP

Price history

OPEN 24H

0.01

Kamala

HIGH 24H

0.02

at 11:42 ET

LOW 24H

0.01

at 02:18 ET

CHANGE

+0.04

+7.0% on Kamala

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB

24H VOLUME

—

Past 24 hours

TOTAL VOLUME

$7.0M

Since creation

LIQUIDITY

—

Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live

TIME	SIDE	PRICE	SIZE	VALUE	TRADER

About this market

Context

This market will resolve to "Kamala" if Kamala Harris is the odds-favorite on Polymarket the day before the election. This market will resolve to "Trump" if Donald Trump is the odds-favorite the day before the election. The odds-favorite the day before the election will be determined by taking an average of Kamala and Trump's odds in the 12-hour period between noon (12 PM ET) and midnight (12 AM ET) on November 4, 2024. The average will be calculated using prices in every 10 minute interval within the 12-hour period, and averaging them once midnight has passed. This market description will be updated with those data points and averages once they have been calculated. The resolution source for this market is https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024, specifically the markets for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading

How is this market resolved?+

The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.

When does this market close?+

Trading closes at Nov 4, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.

What are the possible outcomes?+

The possible outcomes are: Kamala (0%), Trump (100%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.

What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+

If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.

How do I trade on Polymarket?+

You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.