Prediction HFT
LIVE ยท TRADING OPENTECHEVENT IN 219D 8H
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

MARKETS5
CLOSESDec 31, 2026 ยท 12:00 AM UTC
EVENT VOLUME
$3
MARKETS
5
LIQUIDITY
$18k

Markets in this event

5 markets ยท sorted by volume

Event activity

Across all 5 markets
24H VOLUME
$3
Past 24 hours
TOTAL VOLUME
$94k
Since creation
LIQUIDITY
$18k
Available to trade

About this event

Context for traders

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model โ€” you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders. Prices represent implied probability: a $0.65 contract means the market prices a 65% chance of that outcome.

FAQ

Resolution & format
How are markets in this event resolved?+
Each market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.
When do these markets close?+
Trading closes at Dec 31, 2026 ยท 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.
How many markets are in this event?+
This event contains 5 markets. Each market settles independently โ€” you can trade any or all of them.
What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+
If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.
How do I trade on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome. All settlements are in USDC.