What are the odds of "Yes" for "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?"?

Currently 25% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

What are the odds of "No" for "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?"?

Currently 76% probability according to Polymarket prediction market traders.

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Current odds

Live · updates every 20s

YES

25%

PRICE $0.24 · IMPLIED 25%▸ BUY YES

76%

PRICE $0.76 · IMPLIED 76%▸ BUY NO

Price history

OPEN 24H

0.21

Yes

HIGH 24H

0.27

at 11:42 ET

LOW 24H

0.18

at 02:18 ET

CHANGE

+0.04

+7.0% on Yes

Market stats

Polymarket · CLOB

24H VOLUME

$2k

Past 24 hours

TOTAL VOLUME

$71k

Since creation

LIQUIDITY

$6k

Available to trade

Recent trades

Last 10 fills · live

TIME	SIDE	PRICE	SIZE	VALUE	TRADER

About this market

Context

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How trading works

Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB) model — you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price, or place limit orders at your target price. All positions are settled in USDC when the market resolves.

Resolution

Markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. After the market closes, a proposer submits a resolution, followed by a 2-hour dispute window. If no dispute is raised, the resolution is accepted. Disputed markets go to UMA token holder vote.

FAQ

Resolution & trading

How is this market resolved?+

The market resolves based on the official outcome as verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle.

When does this market close?+

Trading closes at Dec 31, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC. After close, the UMA oracle proposes a resolution and a 2-hour dispute window opens before final settlement.

What are the possible outcomes?+

The possible outcomes are: Yes (25%), No (76%). Each contract pays out $1 if correct, $0 otherwise.

What happens if the resolution source is unavailable?+

If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market may be delayed or resolved by UMA oracle vote using credible alternative sources. Polymarket's optimistic oracle has final authority on disputed resolutions.

How do I trade on Polymarket?+

You need a Polymarket account (sign up with email or crypto wallet). Connect a Polygon-compatible wallet, fund it with USDC, and you can buy or sell shares of any outcome at the current market price. All settlements are in USDC.